Metrics
Nine numbers, one hour on the first working day of every month, written into the same document each time so the trend is visible. All the thresholds below are targets set before launch, not measurements: overwrite them with real numbers from month threeS28.
First working day of the month, immediately after writing the monthly brief, because the brief is already a review of what happened. Nine numbers, ten minutes each with the arithmetic, and one written sentence at the end: "This month I will change X." One thing, not three.
The nine numbers
| # | Number | How to get it | Healthy | Worry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Members by tier | Circle, one screen | Growing every month in months 1 to 6; base case is 20 at month 6 and 28 at month 12 in the Press RoomS27 | Flat for two months running, or above 60 without a price rise |
| 2 | Monthly churn, Press Room | Cancellations divided by members at the start of the month | Under 6%S35 | Over 9% for two months. At 9% half the cohort is gone in seven months and no amount of selling outruns it |
| 3 | Reviews submitted, as a share of Press Room members | Count the submissions by the 5th | Over 60% | Under 40%. This is the leading indicator of everything. A member who stops submitting has already decided to leave; they just have not clicked yet |
| 4 | Reviews returned within five working days | Count them | 100%. No exceptions. | Anything below 100%. One late review is a broken promise on the only thing that justifies the price |
| 5 | Clinic attendance, live plus recording views in 14 days | Zoom plus Circle | Over 50% of Press Room members | Under 25%. Either the time is wrong or the format is |
| 6 | Free list size and net growth | Substack | Growing every month; at least 40 net new by month 3, 150 by month 6 | Flat for two months. It means the outward channels have stopped, and members are downstream of the list |
| 7 | Hours a week on the membership | A timer, honestly, for one week a month | Under 12 in months 1 to 6, under 18 thereafterS28 | Over 18 twice in a row. The next thing sold is a price rise, not a place. Chapter 11 |
| 8 | Member outcomes: pieces of coverage members report | Ask in the room. One line, once a month | Two or more a month by month four | Zero for two months. If nobody is getting coverage the teaching is wrong, and no marketing fixes that |
| 9 | Revenue, and the platform cost as a percentage of it | Stripe plus the Circle invoice | Cost under 6% of revenueS29 | Over 8%, which usually means it is time to move to Circle BusinessS33 |
The one that matters most
Number 3, the share of members who submit something for review. Everything else is a lagging indicator. Churn tells you who has already gone. Revenue tells you what happened last month. Submission rate tells you, four to eight weeks early, who is about to leave, and it is the only number that can still be acted on when it moves.
What to do when it drops below 40%: email every non-submitter individually, one line, no template. "You have not sent me anything for two months. Is there something you are stuck on, or is the timing just wrong?" That email, sent personally, recovers more members than any discount ever will.
The monthly review, in order
Write the nine numbers into the same document as last month
Same file, appended, so the trend is visible without building anything.
Name every member who did not submit this month
By name, in the document. Then email each one individually before the end of the day.
Check the hours against the cap
If over 18 for a second month, do not sell another place. Raise the price or close the list.
Check which channel this month's joiners came from
One question in the signup form: "How did you hear about this?" Free text. Read the answers, do not tabulate them.
Write the one sentence
"This month I will change X." One thing. Next month, check whether it was done.
Milestones, and what each proves
| By | Milestone | What it proves | If missed |
|---|---|---|---|
| End of week 4 | Twenty conversations held; six or more asked when they could pay | The offer is wanted at some price | Reshape the offer before spending a penny. Likely to a £149 tier with the list and the clinic and no individual review |
| End of month 1 | Six paying founding members | The network converts | The network is thinner than assumed. The plan is the low case; proceed anyway, but do not build the Partner tier |
| End of month 3 | Fourteen Press Room members; submission rate above 50% | People use it, which is the only thing that predicts renewal | If members are joining but not submitting, the product is wrong, not the marketing |
| End of month 4 | One column, podcast or conservatoire partnership landed | Growth is no longer dependent on the ten clients | Pitch four more. If nothing has landed by month six, the free list is the only channel and growth will be slow but real |
| End of month 6 | Twenty Press Room members, £9,947 in the month, under 12 hours a weekS27 | The base case is live | Compare against the low case before concluding anything. The low case at month 6 is £4,515 and is a perfectly good business |
| End of month 12 | Twenty-eight Press Room members, £18,469 in the month, at most 18 hours a week | A second business exists | If the revenue is there and the hours are not, cut the Partner tier first. It is the highest hours-per-pound line in the model |
When to stop
Stated in advance so the decision is not made at a low moment.
Stop before building
Fewer than three of twenty conversations show real interest in paying anything. The market is not there at any price and no amount of production quality changes it. Cost of stopping here: about three weeks of Sam's time and nothing else.
Stop at month 3
Under six paying members and a submission rate under 30%. People are not using what they bought, which means they will not renew and word of mouth will not happen. Cost: about £1,200 of platform and time.
Reshape, do not stop, at month 6
Members are joining and using it but growth has stalled below fifteen. The offer works and distribution does not. Drop the price to £149, remove the individual review, raise the cap, and sell it to the £49 market instead. That is a different business and a viable one.
Stop at any point, for the only reason that really matters
A retained client's work slips because of the membership. Close the list that week, refund the month, and stop. The agency is the business. This was always the optional part, and there is no revenue number that makes losing a client worth it.